Budget Speech 2024

Despite the improved global outlook for 2024, South Africa's near-term growth remains hamstrung by lower commodity prices and structural constraints.

We estimate real GDP growth of 0.6 per cent in 2023. This is down from 0.8 per cent growth estimated during the 2023 MTBPS.

The revision is due to weaker-than-expected outcomes in the third quarter of 2023, particularly in household consumption and fixed investment.

Between 2024 and 2026, growth is projected to average 1.6 per cent.

The growth outlook is supported by the expected easing of power cuts as new energy projects begin production, and as lower inflation supports household consumption and credit extension.

But, there are also risks to the domestic outlook. These include persistent constraints in electricity supply, freight rail and ports; and a high sovereign credit risk.

Our challenge, honourable members, is that the size of the pie is not growing fast enough to meet our developmental needs.